Strategic diagnosis
Establishing an objective, documented reading of the political situation, its dynamics and its uncertainties, before any decision is taken.
Who it is for
Any political organisation about to define or review its strategy.
When
At the start of an engagement, and again whenever the context changes significantly.
Key deliverables
Diagnosis report, map of issues, register of assumptions and areas of uncertainty.
Understand before acting
Most strategic errors do not stem from a poor choice between several options, but from a mistaken reading of the starting situation. Overestimating one’s strengths, misunderstanding an area, underestimating an opposing dynamic: these biases are all the more frequent when teams are emotionally invested in their project.
Strategic diagnosis borrows its fundamental requirement from the scientific method: distinguishing what we know, what we think we know and what we do not know. It systematically tests quantitative data against qualitative field insight, and puts the team’s convictions to the test of facts.
This first stage conditions the quality of all those that follow. It is carried out with an independence of analysis that we regard as the primary added value of an outside perspective.
What the diagnosis covers
Six dimensions analysed in combination.
Institutional context
Electoral system, boundaries, calendar and legal framework of the contest.
Electoral history
Previous results, turnout trends and territorial dynamics.
Social structure
Socio-demographic data, cleavages and people’s dominant concerns.
Competitive environment
Positioning, strengths and weaknesses of other political actors.
Image and perceptions
Name recognition, associated attributes and perceived credibility of the client.
Internal capacity
Organisation, human and financial resources, networks and available tools.
A rigorous inquiry
The diagnosis follows an explicit protocol, shared with the client at the scoping stage.
Scoping
Defining key questions, scope and timeline.
Collection
Public data, surveys, interviews and field observation.
Analysis
Cross-checking sources and identifying structuring dynamics.
Reporting
A frank presentation of findings, assumptions and uncertainties.
Explicit, verifiable methods
Every tool we use is documented: its sources, assumptions and limitations are known to our clients.
Document and statistical analysis
Use of electoral results, official statistics and existing studies.
Qualitative interviews
Gathering the views of local actors, observers and citizens.
Political SWOT analysis
A structured synthesis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
Register of assumptions
An explicit list of the assumptions used, their basis and their degree of reliability.
Measuring honestly
Every indicator is labelled by status — target, calculated estimate or measured result — in line with our principles of rigour
| Indicator | What it shows | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Sources used | The diversity and quality of the sources used. | Measured result |
| Areas analysed | The territorial coverage the diagnosis sets itself. | Target |
| Balance of power | Electoral balances inferred from available data. | Calculated estimate |
| Documented assumptions | The share of assumptions backed by a source or justification. | Measured result |
An independent and honest diagnosis
The value of a diagnosis lies in its candour and the rigour of its sources.
Candour
We report findings as they are, including when they are uncomfortable.
Acknowledged uncertainty
Grey areas are flagged rather than filled with guesswork.
Lawful sources
All information comes from legal and verifiable sources.
Confidentiality
The diagnosis is a document strictly reserved for the client.
The strategist’s first duty is to see the situation as it is, not as they would like it to be.AXIOME working principle
In what contexts do we work?
Illustrative situations: they do not describe actual engagements.
Before a candidacy
A public figure wants a clear-eyed assessment of the ground before committing.
After a defeat
A party wants to understand the underlying causes of a disappointing result.
A transformed context
An institutional reform or major event makes previous analyses obsolete.
Frequently asked questions
It depends on the scope and available data. A focused diagnosis can be carried out quickly; a fine-grained territorial analysis with field surveys takes longer.
Yes. A diagnosis can be a stand-alone engagement, particularly to obtain an independent outside view before an important decision.
Only the recipients designated by the client. The document is protected like any sensitive strategic information.
Related expertise
Let's discuss your project
Every political context is unique. A first, strictly confidential conversation allows us to understand what is at stake and define the most relevant support.
