Coalition strategy and stakeholder mapping
Informing the formation of alliances through a rigorous reading of interests, incentives and the conditions under which political agreements hold.
Who it is for
Parties, candidates and political platforms engaged in alliance-building or rallying efforts.
When
Before candidate filing deadlines, between two rounds, or with a view to forming a governing majority.
Key deliverables
Stakeholder map, alliance opportunity memo, negotiation preparation file.
Alliances built on clarity rather than intuition
In pluralist systems, few political forces can win on their own. Coalitions — electoral or governing — then become decisive. Yet many alliances are formed on the basis of personal affinities or short-term calculations, and later fall apart for lack of solid foundations.
Coalition theory, drawn from political science and institutional economics, teaches that a lasting agreement rests on three conditions: genuine electoral complementarity, sufficient programmatic proximity and credible mechanisms for sharing power and honouring commitments.
Our work consists of making these conditions objective: who carries what weight, who wants what, who can commit to what — so that each negotiation is prepared methodically and each agreement is designed to last.
What the engagement covers
A structured reading of the political ecosystem and its alliance dynamics.
Power/interest mapping
Positioning parties, figures, organisations and intermediary bodies according to their influence and expectations.
Electoral complementarity
Analysis of respective voter bases, their overlaps and the potential for vote transfers.
Programmatic proximity
Systematic comparison of positions on key issues to identify convergences and points of friction.
Incentive analysis
What each potential partner stands to gain or lose from an alliance, in the short and long term.
Negotiation preparation
Options, acceptable concessions, fallback alternatives and sequencing of talks.
Agreement architecture
Principles of joint governance, coordination mechanisms and dispute resolution.
Prepare, negotiate, consolidate
A four-step approach, from identifying potential partners to stabilising the agreement.
Mapping
Identifying all relevant actors and their positions.
Assessment
Analysing the electoral and programmatic value of each possible alliance.
Preparation
Building the negotiation strategy and fallback scenarios.
Consolidation
Designing the mechanisms that keep the agreement solid over time.
Explicit, verifiable methods
Every tool we use is documented: its sources, assumptions and limitations are known to our clients.
Power/interest matrix
A classic stakeholder analysis tool, adapted to the specific features of political ecosystems.
Vote transfer analysis
Estimating, from past elections and surveys, the likelihood of transfers between electorates.
Coding of programmatic positions
Methodical comparison of public commitments across a set of structuring issues.
Best alternative analysis
Assessing each party’s position in the absence of an agreement to gauge negotiating leverage.
Measuring honestly
Every indicator is labelled by status — target, calculated estimate or measured result — in line with our principles of rigour
| Indicator | What it shows | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Transfer potential | The plausible share of a partner’s voters likely to follow an alliance endorsement. | Calculated estimate |
| Programmatic convergence | The proportion of issues on which positions are compatible. | Measured result |
| Negotiation timeline | The deadlines set for reaching an agreement. | Target |
| Durability of the agreement | Actual compliance with commitments over time. | Measured result |
Transparent and fair alliances
A legitimate coalition is built in the open, on commitments that can be publicly defended.
Transparency
We support agreements whose essential terms can be explained to voters.
No illicit consideration
We refuse any negotiation based on undue advantages or promises contrary to the law.
Respect for partners
Preparing a negotiation never justifies intrusive information-gathering about individuals.
Confidentiality
Our clients’ negotiating positions are protected with the utmost rigour.
A solid alliance is one whose every partner can explain its rationale to their own voters.AXIOME working principle
In what contexts do we work?
Illustrative situations: they do not describe actual engagements.
Uniting the opposition
Several parties are considering a joint candidacy and need to assess whether a lasting agreement is feasible.
Between two rounds
A qualified candidate must broaden their base within days and identify the most relevant endorsements.
A local majority
Elected officials must build a stable majority within a fragmented assembly.
Frequently asked questions
Our main role is preparation and analysis. At the client’s request we can support working sessions, but political negotiations remain in the hands of mandated leaders.
It combines historical results, opinion surveys and qualitative analysis of the proximity between electorates. The estimate is always presented with its degree of uncertainty.
Yes, when it drives away voters hostile to the partner or blurs positioning. This is precisely what prior analysis helps to anticipate.
Related expertise
Let's discuss your project
Every political context is unique. A first, strictly confidential conversation allows us to understand what is at stake and define the most relevant support.
